RisksandchallengesoftheEUexpansion
I.IntroductionForseveralyearsnowtheEuropeanUnionisdiscussingapossibleenlargement,becauseseveralEuropeancountrieshaveappliedformembershipintheEU.TheseareespeciallytheformersocialistcountriesinEasternEurope,thathaveclearlyturnedtowardsthewestsincethecollapseoftheironcurtain.ThesecountriesareBulgaria,theBalticcountriesLatvia,LithuaniaandEstonia,Poland,Romania,theSlovakRepublic,theCzechRepublic,SloveniaandHungary.
InadditionTurkey,CyprusandMaltaaretryingforquitesometimealreadytojointheEU.TheseapplicationarenottobeacceptedwithoutanyfurtherdeliberationbecausetheydobringalongsomerisksandtheconsequencesarehardtodistinguishthereforethesecountriesarenotveryexpectedjoiningtheEuropeanUnioninthenearfutureandwillthereforenotbeincludedinthefollowingevaluation.
II.Risksandchallenges
IfwewantstoevaluatetherisksandchallengesofanupcomingenlargementoftheEU,weshouldfirsttakeintoaccountexperiencesgainedduringpreviousexpansionwhichweretosomeextentcomparable.Herethesouthernexpansionfrom1986shouldbementionedwheretwoeconomicallypatheticcountriessoughtadmissiontothethenEuropeanCommunity.Theadmissionprocedureofthesetwocandidates,beingSpainandPortugal,werelengthyandconsideredveryproblembearing.Especiallytheamountofproducethatwouldaddtothealreadyexistingagriculturalover-productionoftheCommunitywasseentobeaproblemsinceitwouldincreasetheloadontheEuropeanbudget.
ButseenfromaglobaleconomicalperspectivethejoiningofSpainandPortugalwasoverallpositivefortheECandthetwocountries,althoughSpainstruggledwithafurtherriseofunemploymentanddisparitieswithintheCommunitywerefurtheramplified.
ThedisparitieswithintheUnionwillmostcertainlyincreasewhenitcomestoaneasternexpansion,buttheagriculturalproblemwillnotbeanissue,becausethecandidateshavenotgottheirfocusonagriculture,alreadybecauseoftheircommunistheritagewhichfocusedonindustryratherthanonagricultureorthetertiarysector.
IncaseoftheapproachingexpansiontowardsEasternEuropetheUnionwillhavetoresolveseveralproblems,themostseverebeingwithoutanydoubtthefinancialonethatwillgoalongwiththeextension,estimatedtobe